RiskRep Radar: What’s Driving the 2024 Campaigns and Why Businesses Should Be Prepared

By

Stagwell’s Risk and Reputation Unit

How business is a key election issue

For the first time in decades, immigration is the number one concern for voters, according to the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris poll. Yet, when asked what issue matters most to voters personally, every demographic group picks inflation and cost increases.

This focus will bring business into the crossfire. With Donald Trump’s tax cuts set to expire next year, CEO pay and corporate taxes will become key talking points for both campaigns. With abortion rights rising to the fore again following Arizona’s recent Supreme Court decision, corporate health care policies could come under increased scrutiny, especially by political candidates looking to drum up outrage.

Equally, businesses with strong ties to China could come under fire.

Based on Stagwell’s experts working inside all the campaigns, Democrats and Republicans will be running hard on the following issues:

A battle of generations, not just parties

Age, not just than partisanship, also is behind several of the issues dividing Americans today. Gen Z is by far the most comfortable with employee activism, and tensions over Israel-Hamas continue to spill into the workplace. Google just fired 28 workers for participating in protests over its Israel contract. Universities have faced most of the criticism from politicians so far, but companies should be ready to be next.

The same pattern is emerging around TikTok. While roughly two thirds of Democrats, Republicans and Independents support a TikTok ban, there’s a wide difference by age. Gen Z (18-24-year-olds) is the only age group to oppose a TikTok ban (57%). At the other end, 84% of those 65 and older support the ban.

Key markets will be swamped with ads creating a negative communications environment

Stagwell’s omnichannel agency Assembly projects a record $12 billion will be spent across media channels this election cycle year. This spending will be highly targeted and concentrated in key markets.

Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Reno will be bombarded the most, followed by Pittsburgh, Tucson, Missoula, Billings, Boston, Wilkes Barre-Scranton, Butte-Bozeman, Detroit, Los Angeles, Charlotte, Atlanta, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Harrisburg, D.C. and Raleigh-Durham.

Importantly, as the election ads heat up, these markets will be inundated with nearly complete negativity – which will make communicating and marketing more difficult than ever. Specifically, negative advertising about the economy could not just affect people’s votes; it could depress their willingness to spend.

It is more important than ever for business leaders to be prepared for this election cycle with bipartisan advisory teams, integrated vetting processes, scenario planning and 24/7 monitoring.

Explore our full presentation on the issues driving the 2024 campaigns here.

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